A good link for weather nuts and storm lovers is the convective outlook page from the Storm Prediction Center. They give probabilities of severe weather in given locations along with a text convective outlook. This weather jargon is unintelligible to most people as it is full of 'isms' and abbreviations.
Looks like this will be the last warm day for a while.
Convective outlook statement (11/14/07):
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST WED NOV 14 2007
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY...
...MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...
DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...LOWER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER WEAK ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS...AND WILL IMPROVE ONLY A LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND MILD NOVEMBER
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG INTO THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WITHIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SHOULD INCREASE ELEVATED MOIST
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO
MIDDLE TN/KY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ROTATION/PERSISTENCE TO THE STRONGER CORES AND THESE MAY YIELD HAIL
TODAY. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION SHOULD AWAIT STRONGER HEATING AND
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO SRN AR/NRN MS/WRN TN
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS
REGION INDICATE LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A
FEW SUPERCELLS OR SMALL LINES MOVING QUICKLY SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL WILL
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
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