It's relatively rare that the Storm Prediction Center issues a convective outlook that shows a 'High Risk' area of severe weather. The following map and forecast will be updated again later this Thursday morning. Here's the cut and paste from the SPC:
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG OR VIOLENT....Middle Tennessee is considered to be at moderate risk, enough so that the NWS in Nashville has issued this forecast:
THURSDAY...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.The first wave of storms will be coming into Nashville around 3 am Thurs and may provide a rude awakening. Severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued for a few counties. There is some shear present but no tornados now in the wee hours. (occasional 3-D Correlated Shear but no Supercell Mesos ... yet). I'm guessing the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Middle TN til 8 am Thurs might be upgraded to a Tornado Watch at some point.
Stay tuned.
*UPDATE* Tornado Watch number 44
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 am CST Thu Mar 1 2007
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch [for the Middle TN Area]
Damn weather radio - I never sleep.
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